Monthly Returns - October 2009

The month of October was the second negative month for the CCIP. The overall market was essentially flat for the month, though the benchmark SPY ETF was down slightly. Premiums have stayed low, as the VIX has continued to stay pretty low throughout the month. As I have been implementing my new investing strategy over the past month and a half I have noticed some interesting things in the movement of the account. Although I have not been “beating” the benchmark by very much my volatility has been much lower. The average daily move in the CCIP has been 0.7% in the month of October vs. 1.18% in the SPY (the median was also better, 0.69% vs. 1.08%). As one of my goals in the CCIP is to make it a better investment vehicle for those who don’t like to see huge swings in account value, this is very promising. In terms of individual positions, I continue to try to move out of my positions in UNG, and hopefully that will happen in the next few months. At least in this case, natural gas prices can’t go to 0, so my potential loss is not unlimited.

I have also started to track other metrics recently to judge the performance of the CCIP. One of these metrics is to understand the overall “profit yield” in the portfolio. The “profit yield” normalizes the potential returns of each position on an annualized basis to determine an overall portfolio potential annualized return. My goal is to keep this number above 25%, and it currently stands at 28.65%. I will report this number with each monthly update from now on.

The 2009 Since Inception results are as follows:

1. Since Inception Results

CCIP Absolute Return (March 7 through October 31, 2009) = 56.77%

Benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) Absolute Return (March 7 through October 31, 2009) = 48.11%

The CCIP has outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark by a total of 8.66%

November 2009 Next Steps

The month of November is bound to be full of surprises, as it seems that the rally is losing steam. Lately, I have also heard a lot of talk about a head and shoulders pattern beginning to form, which could mean a large drop in the market in the near future. As a result of this uncertainty, I have started moving some of my money into more stable companies, which have strong dividends and are less dependent on an improving economy. As I noted above, my current strategy aims for a portfolio annualized return of 25%, however this is adjusted downwards from where it stood at the beginning of the month, which was 35%.

As of right now, my current strategies for the CCIP include:

• Near-month covered calls
• Long-term covered calls
• Ex-dividend Strategy
• Cash-Secured Put Strategy
• Put Spread Strategy

The strategy for establishing covered calls positions after November expiration will depend on what positions close ITM at expiration. I will establish new positions based upon my annualized return asset allocation strategy in order to hit an overall portfolio return of 25%.

As always, please post any thoughts or questions you have regarding the CCIP and the posts on the blog.

Initial Transaction - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

After my position in COP was called away on October 28, I decided to enter a similar type of return position with a November expiration. This position is in Bristol Myers Squibb, a pharmaceutical company which had a place in the CCIP from April until July this year. Since running up to above $22 in July right before expiration, the stock has been relatively flat. I believe that pharmaceuticals offer a unique investment in the healthcare space, as the effect on them from upcoming health care legislation should already be priced into the stock as that section of the bill has essentially been written for months. Additionally, the stock pays a great dividend, and has traded in a relatively tight range for much of the last year. I chose to enter a current month call position as I am considering slightly altering my current strategy to utilize high dividend stocks and slightly ITM or slightly OTM calls. The new profit/loss info is below:

10/29/2009 -- Bought 200 BMY @ 22.2025
10/29/2009 -- Sold To Open 2 BMY November $22 Call @ 0.5625


The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $4328.00


Downside Coverage (from current price of $22.2025): 2.5%
Possible Max Upside: 1.52%

Annualized Max Upside: 24.17%

Closing Transaction - ConocoPhillips (COP)

This was an experiment in my covered call investment strategy which I think worked out quite well. The idea with this type of position is to choose a stable company, paying an above average dividend which has pretty good option premiums and sell a longer term call. The purpose of selling a longer term call is to provide multiple "exit points" for the owner of the call you sold. They could call your stock away at the first ex-dividend date, the second ex-dividend date, or expiration (assuming the option is ITM). From a return perspective, I aim for a 10-20% return regardless of when the stock would be called away. For ConocoPhillips this plan worked wonderfully, and the stock was called away on the first ex-dividend date it hit, providing a fantastic 19.42% annualized return over two months. The profit/loss info is below:

8/13/2009 -- Bought 100 COP @ 43.93
8/13/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 COP January $39 Call @ 6.49
10/28/2009 -- Sold 100 COP @ 38.9539

The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 3759.00

Actual Gain: 4.04%

Annualized Gain: 19.42%

Update Transaction - MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)

I decided to do one post for essentially three transactions taking place on two days as it all has to do with the same event. On October 22, WFR released earnings after the market closed which were pretty disastrous. Now, this should not have been a surprise to most, as they had previously stated earnings would be horrible due to plant shutdowns they had during the quarter. However, the stock essentially fell off a cliff at which point I decided to buy back the $16 call I had sold, and sell a $15 November Call, to essentially break even if called at expiration. This was done when the stock was at about $14. Unfortunately, the stock continued to fall, reaching almost $12 at which point I decided to buy back the $15 call, and essentially wait for somewhat of a bounce in order to resell a call. I think the stock was punished more than it should have been, and this opinion was somewhat echoed by an upgrade the stock received simply based on the drop in price. The analyst noted that their target was $15, the stock had fallen almost 20% under that price and was thus undervalued (I consider this to be a smarter analyst than most, as most analysts wouldnt upgrade on such a price decline, even though it makes sense based on the target). I plan to resell a call once the stock gets somewhere above $13.50, hopefully sooner rather than later. The profit/loss info is below:

10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 WFR @ 15.76
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 WFR November $16 Call @ 0.81
10/23/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 WFR November $16 Call @ 0.25
10/23/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 WFR November $15 Call @ 0.40
10/27/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 WFR November $15 Call @ 0.20

The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 1495.00

Potential Gain If Called At Expiration: N/A
PotentialAnnualized Gain If Called At Expiration: N/A

Initial Transaction - Intel (INTC)

After a somewhat premature exit from my positions in Intel, I decided to open a new position as part of my ex-dividend strategy. The company will pay a dividend to shareholders on record November 6, meaning the ex-div date is November 4th. For this position I decided to sell a December call as it would result in a better return if the stock was actually called at the ex-dividend date. It addionally provided added downside protection due to the longer time value. The profit/loss info is below:

10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 INTC @ 19.795
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 INTC December $19 Call @ 1.14

The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: $1755.00

Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Ex-Div. Date (11/4/2009): 40.48%

Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Expiration (11/21/2009): 15.75%

Downside Protection: 5.8%

Initial Transaction - MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR)

After a drop in the price of MEMC Electronics Materials, I decided to re-enter a position I had held a few months ago. I have been keeping track of companies which used to be part of the CCIP in order to re-enter positions if the price fell below the original position I had held, but the company still had strong fundamentals. This company is a bit different for the CCIP as it is more of a speculative position, though I think it is necessary to have such things in any portfolio. The company makes silicon wafers for the semiconductor and solar industry, and has had some issues recently with production problems. As a result of that, and the faltering economy, the company has reported negative earnings for the past few quarters. I think the company will be a good growth story coming out of the recession, and I therefore decided to re-establish a position. The profit/loss info is below:

10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 WFR @ 15.76
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 WFR November $16 Call @ .81

The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 1495.00

Potential Gain If Called At Expiration: 6.25%
PotentialAnnualized Gain If Called At Expiration: 73.59%

Initial & Closing Transaction - Lockheed Martin (LMT)

As goes the mantra of good investing, you must always invest logically and not emotionally. Unfortunately, I think this is one thing that most people find difficult to do, whether it be selling a position which has fallen precipitously and is no longer a good company, or not selling a position when you have made a lot of money but the company is now overvalued because you are being greedy. In this case it was neither, it was what I consider to be somewhere in between those two issues, and that is selling a position because it took a big hit one day, and though the fundamentals didn't change, it made me jumpy, so I sold it. This position was in Lockheed Martin, and though it only existed for one day, I felt it necessary to put it on the blog as it is a good investing lesson. I mentioned a few weeks ago after my position in LMT was called away at $75 that I would consider re-entering the stock if it fell below $72. The company released lackluster earnings for the latest quarter, and so the stock fell from near $78 down to $73 in one day. I chose to enter at this point in one of my long-term dividend covered call positions, similar to the one I had in ConocoPhillips. The idea here is to sell a fairly ITM call which is at least 3 months in the future, and shoot for about a 10-20% return regardless of whether the stock gets called away at any of the ex-dividend dates or at expiration. Unfortunately, the stock continued to fall the following day underneath $70 which it had not fallen below in quite a while, and I got spooked so I closed out the position. Of course, once I did so the stock rebounded somewhat, but I had already taken my loss. The lesson here is if the company is a good fundamental investment, you should not let a decline scare you away, you should instead consider it an opportunity to purchase more, or in this case possibly buy back the call and wait for a rebound t sell a new one. The profit/loss info is below:

10/20/2009 -- Bought 100 LMT @ 72.76
10/20/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 LMT March $70 Call @ 5.80
10/21/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 LMT March $70 Call / Sold 100 LMT @ 65.50

Loss = $135.00

The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 66.85